Beware certainty

Wise words from Doug Kass, via Big Picture:

I continue to listen to and read a lot of convicted opinions for instance, the market has bottomed, financials have bottomed, oil has topped, stocks are enormously undervalued against historic measures...

I would put those convicted opinions in a locked closet

Quite right. The more convinced someone is that they are right about an unknowable future, the less weight I place on that forecast. Blessed be the doubters, for they shall inherit positive alpha.