Thursday, 20 March 2008

Dark clouds lifting?

The FT reports:
The dark cloud of uncertainty over the credit ratings of bond insurers Ambac and MBIA is slowly lifting, and sentiment in the credit markets and stock markets is improving as a result.

Moody’s Investors Service and Standard and Poor’s this week reconfirmed the triple-A ratings for MBIA. Standard and Poor’s had also confirmed its top rating for Ambac, where discussions continue about a deal with banks to inject fresh funds and restructure its business.

That may well be true, but the share prices don't reflect it. Courtesy of Bloomberg:
This is turning into a complicated and difficult to navigate mixture of politics and economics. On a mark-to-market basis the largest monolines are almost certainly not AAA -- but they are not mark-to-market players. Their leverage is terrifying. But they have powerful friends, and it is increasingly being seen to be in the industry's interests that they survive at least in run-off if not as fully fledged players. Muni insurance is getting tougher with some states opting out entirely and Buffett soaking up much of the other business.

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