Tuesday 18 March 2008

What a bargain?

If the JP deal to buy the Bear holds at $2 a share, they have got themselves a rather attractive looking deal. It must have taken courage to get to this point, and I'm sure they will find some nasties once all the stones are lifted, but the overall impression from the call is of a transaction that works well for JP, if not for Bear shareholders, especially given their option on the Bear's HQ. If the Bear can go for $2, though, it makes one wonder what Lehman is worth.

Update. BSC closed on Wednesday at $5.33, well over JP's offer. Will Joseph Lewis, one of the largest shareholders, be able to arrange a better deal? The cultural fit with JP can't be good, but at $2 they probably are not too concerned about that. Barclays might be a better fit, but are they in a position to find the cash, especially without FED support? One rumour doing the rounds is that Deutsche were interested. In any event, the consensus seems to be that JP has got it more or less sown up: see here for a discussion from Dealbreaker.

Meanwhile, Felix Salmon has a nice discussion on why the Bear share price is so far above JP's offer. The argument is that the bond holders have a lot to lose if the purchase does not go through and much to gain if it does. So they are buying the stock in order to vote for the merger.

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