Saturday 19 January 2008

Volatility smolatility

The FT points out what is perhaps obvious, that volatility of equity indices is rising. I hadn't appreciated the size of the issue, though, until I saw this:

Wednesday’s intra-day whipsaw of 632 points on the Dow Jones Industrial Average is the fifth largest on record (the top four all occurred during the tech bubble collapse).
[...]
The Vix is rising off a long period of relative calm – it averaged 13 in the three years ending July 2007.

13? 13 is far, far too low. I remember FTSE five year ATM vols going to 40 at the peak of the LTCM debacle. Even in the glory days before that 13 was a low number for short dated vol (the VIX is ATM one month S&P vol). Still, that little episode must be causing some amusing calibration issues for mean reverting stochastic vol models...

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