Thursday, 2 July 2009

Reality and perception in equity markets

The hard part about making market calls is not coming to a view on fundamental value. While that's difficult, it is still easier than the other part of making a trading decision, which is estimating current and future sentiment. It's particularly tricky at the moment: fundamentals suggest to me that most developed equity markets are over-valued. But sentiment is positive, and there is a wall of money still sitting nervously on the sidelines. If even a small fraction of that comes to the market, we could go significantly higher. The greater fool trade is always risky, so I'm flat equity at the moment and likely to remain so at least until either fundamentals improve or sentiment (and prices) turn down. Just my two cents: I wouldn't pay any attention if I were you.

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