Thursday, 5 June 2008

Short LEH?

Clearly there is a lot of money shorting Lehman, and I won't deny it can't go down further. But honestly, do you think the Americans will let another broker/dealer fail? They had five big ones before the Bear: now it's four. Three feels like too few to me, and I suspect both the FED and the SEC agree. I think I might be a seller of the default swaps.

And by the way, in what possible world are Merill and Lehman A- but Ambac and MBIA still AAA? Admittedly there are signs that Moody's might finally (six months too late) be ready to do the right thing with the monolines, but really, these four ratings taken together make no sense.

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