Saturday positions

It is time to look at the blog's fantasy global macro portfolio.

• A short in gold. After a scary moment this came back but now it doesn't seem to be going anywhere. Take it off: the time will come for this position but it is probably later in the cycle.
  
• Long the iTraxx and short the components stock. I still like this and it has performed reasonably but the short is starting to hurt despite the spread tightening. Keep a close eye on it and take the short off quickly if the equity rally seems to be continuing.
  
• Long yen, short dollar. This has done very nicely but with the possibility of concerted intervention it is time to take the money and run. One might even think about a cautious long dollar short euro position at this point.
  
• A modest long MBIA and Ambac stock. This is a weird play because I think fundamentally neither of these companies are worth anything, but on the other hand I did believe that there were enough fools out there that the stock would rise in the short term, especially after the lack of ratings agency action. I was wrong. I'm tempted to keep the position for the moment but with a very tight stop on it.
  
• Long a first to default note on a basket of national champion banks. The yield here is very attractive and a play on too big to fail is attractive. Keep it.